Did Man United’s draw at Liverpool have a bearing on Premier League title race?

Did Man United’s draw at Liverpool have a bearing on Premier League title race?

It would be grossly brazen to say that Liverpool, the runaway Premier League leader, saw its chances of a 20th top-flight title dented after the side was held to a 2-2 draw by rival Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday.

However, a computer thinks it has.

Opta’s Supercomputer has recorded the slightest of dips in Arne Slot’s chances of lifting the Premier League at the end of May.

But how does this piece of artificial intelligence work?

“The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances,” the website explains how the supercomputer works.

Liverpool seemed to be well on its way to starting 2025 with a win over Manchester United, especially when Mohamed Salah slotted the ball into the net from the penalty spot in the 70th minute.

However, Amad Diallo turned out to be the party-pooper for the Merseyside club, once again, as the Reds were denied a win.

Before kick-off at a snowy Anfield, Liverpool’s title chances peaked at 91.7 per cent in Opta’s Supercomputer. But after the stalemate, the chances dropped to 88.9 per cent.

While Slot’s Reds are still favourites to lift the title at the end of the season, Ruben Amorim’s side has indeed stopped Liverpool in its tracks, even if it is momentarily.

Manchester United’s spirited display at the weekend slightly helped its rival from North London Arsenal.

Before the Liverpool vs United match, Arsenal once again dropped points after a 1-1 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion. Before the trip to the American Express Stadium, the Gunners had a 9.5 per cent chance of winning its first PL title since 2003-04. However, after the draw, the chance went down to 8 per cent.

A day later when United drew with Liverpool, Mikel Arteta-managed side’s chances went up to 10.3 per cent. The gap between Arsenal and Liverpool now is six points, with the latter still left to play Everton away from home. Even Chelsea, which is 10 points off the leader, saw its chances go up slightly, from 0.1 to 0.4 per cent, after the Anfield thriller.

Interestingly, the live season simulation of the Opta Supercomputer puts Nottingham Forest’s title chances at zero. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has by far been the surprise of the season and was the only team to hand Slot his sole defeat in club football last year.

After the 0-2 defeat at home to Newcastle United, Amorim admitted that United could be involved in a battle to avoid relegation. The side ended 2024 in 14th place, but the draw with Liverpool saw it move up a place.

Still, United is closer to the drop zone than it is from the Champions League spots.

As of now, the Opta Supercomputer says that there’s a 0.1 per cent chance that United gets relegated at the end of this season by finishing in 18th. On the other hand, the AI also places a 0.2 per cent chance of Amorim and co. finishing fourth.

With about half of the season still to go, one will have to wait and see which sides end up in the top four and which drop down to the Championship.