Analysis: How Nottingham Forest transformed into Premier League title contender
Analysis: How Nottingham Forest transformed into Premier League title contender
It was not too long ago when Nottingham Forest was remembered for the wrong things. After securing Premier League promotion in 2022 after 23 long years, it brought a record 21 players in the transfer market and narrowly escaped relegation by finishing 16th and 17th, respectively, in successive seasons. But in the current campaign, it has exceeded expectations by pushing itself for a European place.
After 20 matches, Forest is third on the table with 40 points, already more than what it managed in the previous two seasons. While a first European berth in over three decades remains within reach, Nuno Espirito Santos’ men would be daring to dream for more.
On Tuesday night, Forest hosts Liverpool at the City Ground and a victory could cut the lead to the top to just three points and firmly place itself as a surprise title challenger.
Smart recruitment since 2023 followed by Nuno’s appointment has paved the way for Forest’s turnaround. In the last 10 matches, Forest has taken 21 points, while losing only to Newcastle United, Arsenal and Manchester City. The Reds are currently on a seven-match winning run across all competitions.
Forest has the lowest possession (39.9%) and passes into the opponent penalty box (averaging 22.8) in the division, but its simple blueprint has allowed it to go against the trend. Nuno has set the side in a 4-2-3-1 formation to play counter-attacking football with the use of pacy attackers on the flanks.
Forest’s underlying numbers suggest massive overperformance in both attack and defence, largely thanks to two individuals – striker Chris Wood and goalkeeper Matz Sels.
Journeyman Wood’s big-money move to Newcastle United didn’t go to plan and was loaned out to Forest on a six-month deal before he signed permanently in 2023. He is now Forest’s leading scorer in the Premier League era. Wood has 12 goals in the league this season with an xG of 7.2. His conversion rate of 32.35% is better than Mohammed Salah, Cole Palmer, Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak, who all have 13 goals or more.
In fact, Forest’s 29 goals in the league makes it only the 13 th highest-scorer in the league and would hope the Kiwi continues to over-perform. With his previous season’s tally at a league-best 14, Wood is well on his way to better his own record.
In recent years, Premier League teams have prioritised evolving into quick transition teams, moving the ball at pace from defence to attack. The league averages 1.69 shots from fast breaks from only 199 matches played, making a massive jump from 0.94 in the 2021/22 season.
Forest laid the foundations in 2023 with the signings of Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, who were deemed surplus to requirements at Manchester United and Chelsea, respectively, who have become established forwards at the City Ground. The duo along with attacking midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White has made Forest a penetrative attacking outfit, cutting through opponent’s defensive lines at will.
In 2023-24, Forest managed a total of 36 shots from fast break shots with a similar theme continuing in the current campaign with 29 fast breaks, making it the third-best in the league, while scoring four goals on the counter.
The large number of turnovers is also due to its intense pressing in the middle third and the opposition’s final third. Forest effects a league-high defensive action after 7.50 passes allowing it to recover possession and catching the opponent’s defense cold in vulnerable zones. The attacking front four and the two combative central midfielders of Ryan Yates and Elliot Anderson have been crucial to this.
But it’s the impressive defensive numbers, which have transformed Forest from a relegation candidate into a Champions League-chasing contender.
It has the most number of clean sheets (9), joint-second best defensive record (19 goals conceded) and has conceded the least amount of goals from its penalty box (78.95%). Its back five has largely been undisturbed with Sels stationed behind the defence of Ola Aina, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo and Neco Williams. The signings of the experienced Sels and Milenkovic have been crucial to Forest’s uptick in fortunes.
Sels’s save record of 76% is the third-best in the league, a stark improvement from 20 th and 15th-place finishes for the metric in the previous two campaigns. His form was evidenced in Forest’s recent 3-0 win away to Wolverhampton Wanderers, where Sels made five big saves to shut out the home side.
The low block of 4-4-2 in defensive transition has allowed Forest to restrict opponent’s shots at goal (3.85) and shots from counter-attacks (13) to a premium. Forest’s solid defensive structure means it is the only side other than Arsenal which hasn’t conceded a goal due to errors.
Forest has lost just nine points from 17 matches when it has taken the lead this campaign. The Reds have made it difficult for opposition teams to get into any sort of rhythm by slowing things down using some clever game management while treading the line of ‘dark arts’.
In the 2022-23 season, Forest needed an average of 28.4 seconds to restart play and was the ninth-worst offender in the league. In the ongoing season, Forest tops the charts with 32.1s in resuming play. Nuno’s men have been shown six yellows for time-wasting – ranked joint-third behind Arsenal and Bournemouth. Goalkeeper Sels has seen two cautions for delaying goal-kicks, coming in the 1-0 win over Liverpool at Anfield and the 1-1 draw at Chelsea.
Runaway leader Liverpool’s only defeat in the league was inflicted by Nuno’s Forest. Similar tactics and game management will be on display when Liverpool pays a visit under the lights on Tuesday. Slot compared Manchester United’s style to Forest when it held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw at Anfield last week and will need to find an answer to stop his team from falling for the same trap.
Despite its points return, Opta’s Supercomputer simulations still has Forest at 0% chance of winning the league title, while Manchester City, placed 12 points behind Liverpool, is offered a glimmer at 0.4%. The Artificial Intelligence tool has been influenced by Forest’s two decade-long-plus stint in the wilderness, but Nuno and his men would be keen to deliver another shock to the system by upsetting the odds.
