Arsenal running out of ammunition in quest to end Premier League title drought

Arsenal running out of ammunition in quest to end Premier League title drought

After agonisingly falling short to Manchester City for the Premier League title in the last two seasons, Arsenal entered the 2024-25 season as a title contender. Five months into the fray, it is trailing Liverpool by nine points. With the Merseyside club capitalising on City’s struggles, and a crucial game against Guardiola’s side looming, this match feels crucial to Arsenal’s title hopes.

The North Londoners’ FA Cup dreams were dashed by old rivals, Manchester United, and a crushing 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle United in the first leg of the League Cup semifinal has only deepened their woes. Despite a strong Champions League group stage performance (six wins in eight), the threat of another trophy-less season has dampened fan enthusiasm.

Mikel Arteta’s men lost seven points in its first eight league matches, drawing two and losing one and then went on to drop 12 points from winning positions. The latest was a 2-2 draw at home against Aston Villa, which the Gunners were leading 2-0 till the 60th minute. A brutal combination of injuries, suspensions, and squandered chances has taken its toll.

After the 2022-23 season, when Arsenal first mounted a title challenge, Arteta has prioritised defensive solidity over attacking flair, reducing the scope for spontaneity, condensing the game into fewer big moments, and reducing games to low open-play expected goals (xG) affairs.

Arsenal’s average ball possession has decreased from 58.2 per cent to 55.21, which reflects Arteta’s shifting philosophy that emphasises defending without the ball. This approach has made the North London side the only team yet to concede a goal directly from a defensive error.

Several injuries to key players at the start of the season forced Arteta to tweak his usual 4-3-3 setup to accommodate out-of-position players. At times, Arteta used four centre-backs alongside two defensive midfielders to plug the gaps.

Despite a compromised attacking setup, Arsenal has scored the fifth-most league goals (44), with set-pieces, especially corners, playing a big role.

Arsenal’s creative nucleus and captain, Martin Odegaard, suffered an ankle injury during the September international break, adding to the shoulder injury Mikel Merino suffered in his first training session, which kept him out for six weeks.

Merino’s injury meant Arteta’s plans for the problematic left-eight position had to be put on hold once again. That position has been one of Arsenal’s Achilles heels since Granit Xhaka’s move to Bayer Leverkusen in the summer of 2023.

But the wider issue has been injuries to multiple players in the same position, which has disrupted the team’s rhythm.

Arteta has had to name eleven different starting back-four combinations in 23 league games. Not one variation has started more than five times, and none has started more than three games in a row.

First-choice right-back, Ben White, has made just 12 appearances in all competitions, missing different periods between September and November with a knee injury before undergoing surgery.

In the past two seasons, a consistent pattern emerged in Arsenal’s right flank, with Bukayo Saka, White, and Odegaard frequently rotating positions. However, this season, that trio has only started together in four league games. This means that Arsenal’s players have had to adapt and build new partnerships with different teammates.

The loss of Saka just before Christmas made things even worse. The 23-year-old Englishman has been the driving force of Arsenal’s attack, with five goals and 10 assists. The Hale End (Arsenal’s academy) graduate still leads the league in big chance creation (19), despite not playing in his team’s last seven matches.

In the FA Cup defeat to United, Arsenal also lost Jesus, who was returning to goalscoring form, to an ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) injury, which has been ruled the Brazilian out for the season.

One of the most frustrating aspects of Arsenal’s game has been its lack of a killer finishing instinct. There seems to be too much emphasis on scoring the perfect goal from open play.

Kai Havertz, who is not a conventional striker, has led the line. Although the German has notched up 14 goals from 31 appearances in all competitions and recorded the most distance covered (123 km) in the Premier League, his missed chances have drawn the attention of critics.

The attack feels short-handed. With only five players available for the front three, including 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri, options are limited. As the season progresses, the team’s struggles to convert chances are raising questions about the team’s recruitment strategy and highlighting potential transfer market misses.

Despite spending over £100 million in the summer transfer window, mostly on three first-team players: David Raya – whose loan deal from Brentford was made permanent – Riccardo Calafiori, and Mikel Merino, it failed to bolster its attacking options.

The only addition to their attack was Chelsea outcast Raheem Sterling, who came on loan. On the other hand, they sold academy products Emile Smith Rowe, Reiss Nelson, and Eddie Nketiah.

Although the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) played a part in these departures, they were not forced by them. The €34 million it received from the sale of Smith Rowe would have balanced the books after it booked a €40 million profit for the sale of another academy product Folarin Balogun a summer earlier. 

The decision to go into the new season with an injury-prone striker (Jesus) and a hybrid centre-forward (Havertz) proved to be a mistake in hindsight.

In the wake of the departure of sporting director Edu, Arsenal is reportedly attempting to land an attacker in the January transfer window (which ends on February 3). Although several players have been linked, no one has yet arrived at London Colney.

With 15 games remaining, Arne Slot’s men have a tougher road ahead compared to the Gunners with several tricky clashes with trips to Aston Villa, Man City, Chelsea and archrivals Everton alongside a mouthwatering clash against the North Londoners.  

Arsenal has to overcome a nine-point deficit to lift the title after 21 years. The task is daunting but it is not unheard of. In the 1997-98 season, the Gunners trailed United by 12 points in February, yet they ended up winning the league by a point, giving Arsene Wenger his maiden title.